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A continued concern for me as evidenced by one of my related posts here, is the continued sustainability of the blogosphere and Web 2.0 as we know it this morning. I do not think blogosphere can survive in its current structure nor at the rate of new blogs. I have to question Technorati’s statistics (from what I can find at the site they were last published here on 6 November 2006 by Dave Sifry) about the growth of blogs. For instance, do they keep counting those blogs that are opened but never updated? Do they only survey active blogs?
Anyway, all my worst fears about this topic seem to be of concern to other authoritative figures in blogosphere as well. In his Business 2.0 blog called The.Next.Net, Erick Schonfeld wrote a blog article called Web 2.0 Flameouts on 8th January, raising questions and suggests, “Some are calling this signs of the Web 2.0 bubble bursting”.
In fact Techcrunch has already started a Web 2.0 Deadpool where you can read about the company ‘flameouts’. This section is updated with new entrants as and when a flameout occurs. All too rapidly for my liking.
Will the number of new blogs peak and plateau then fizzle out as fads normally do? Am I the only one who sees blogging as a fad that 90% of bloggers may give up at some date in the future when family, kids, school, the office, career, marriage, divorce and maturity will determine the time available to continue the fad?
Is Web 2.0 simply another wiser Web 1.0 but with new flaws that Web 1.0 gestated for Web 2.0 to give birth to? Or has Web 2.0 really not learnt much from the Web 1.0 debacle?
Is VC greed still as ferocious and ignorant of sound investment rules?
Will the number of flameouts begin to increase?
Flickering Web 2.0 Pilot Light
6 comments ↓
Certainly at face value it looks like it’s still in a growth phase, but with technology cycle times constantly decreasing, much of it driven by new economic models, I reckon we will probably see it levelling out.
The question is when? And does it sustain itself in the process even if there is this predicted fall away? Or will we simply form part of be a retro-gen of bloggers.
Economics is the key because as economic models become much more Hollywood in style: teaser, premier, box office profits and cost recovery in the first few weeks, DVD, merchandising, pay per view, TV, series channel, online nostaligia - an 18 month cycle and shortening. Where is the blogosphere on that continum - week 2 or 3 perhaps?
Anyway when I think of fads, I always think of the Hudsucker Proxy (by the Coen Brothers) and that it’s not always such a bad thing to be part of it all.
Robin,
You say, “that it’s not always such a bad thing to be part of it all”.
I agree. But the key to participating is to know when to extract yourself from it all. You don’t want to be the last one left to switch the lights out or carry the cost of overextending the welcome.
blah blah blah blog speak tech tech….
HELLO CHERUB.
(Not dissing your very clever blog. Just not sure I have the will to understand it)
But just a little post-feastive helllozit….
That’s true but I am talking about not being scared to pioneer stuff even if the lifespan maybe short.
Hello to you Dolce, sorry Rob, we’ll continue techno ranting later.
No no boys…don’t stop on my behalf…was just popping in to say hi.
Robin, I’d say hi on your site too……but…nooooo comments!
so Hi.
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